The Lebanese are appeals to be sent to the polls to vote for the parliamentarians. Alors que le pays est confronté à la plus grave crise de son histoire, beaucoup réclament un renouvellement de la classe politique. However, the confessional system, the divisions of the opposition and the clientelism pours a lot more than change.

On May 15, the first legal elections in Lebanon were launched due to the economic crisis and the devastating explosions in the Port of Beirut in August 2020. A catastrophe led by a crime against corruption, et al. Plus, yes, this election is free from the Lebanese occupation, for example, at the expense of one of the most successful contests.

The Lebanese Parliament, which has 128 seats, is currently dominated by the Hezbollah party, Southern and Iranian and allies, winner of the majority in the 2018 elections, disapproval of demobilization, misappropriation of demobilization à la coalition Kulluna Watani.

The tenth author of the list of Kulluna Watani is not a traduit in the urns: only one place has been used for traditional parties. These final members shall be entitled to the parliamentary majority, beneficiaries of the Alliance Games and of a new electoral law.

Does the vote of 2022 sera-t-il l’accasion visit the discount cards? Kelui-ci constitue le premier test electoral majeur depuis le mouvement de contestation qui a émergé en oktobre 2019. Ces protestations, essentiellement menées par une jeunesse en colère contre la classe politique, ont été ta nourries par jun-dram. Beyrouth – the young activists who have already deployed an extraordinary effort to increase the absence of state services.

The “revolution” does not even change

The combination of these crises with the inclination of militant connus and the number of active activist groups to follow the political policy to be able to solve the problems of the country. However, the transformation of this movement in the political entity is the life of the Lebanese political system, without bureaucratic issues, ideological and organizational dilemmas.

In the first place, the electorate has made a difference in the formation of coalitions, good and in the interests of existing politicians, and with a lot of power between communities and religious communities in a confessional system of archaic origin.

The epic question of Hezbollah’s armies is one of the other issues that this new opposition does not have to relate to: it is open to the arsenal of the paramilitary party, the divisions are as close as possible to all non avec les partis anti-Hezbollah etablis au Leban, car beaucoup sont dirigés par des descendants de politiens ou d’anciens chefs de guerre.

En fin de compte, ces dizaines de groupes d’opposition – connus sous le nom de “thawra” ou “révolution” – n’ont pas réussi à previous un front politique uni avant les elections. “I have many tentatives to find a land of interest, but the number of groups and priority divergent priorities is complicated by the process,” said the Center for Strategy and Security of the Nicolas Blanford du Scowcroft of the Atlantic Council. .

Ainsi, the number of independent candidates who doubled their vote in 2018, will receive 284 of 718 candidates in the course of 2022 – against 124 in the fourth year, as well as think-thank you. In addition to the lists of oppositions that affirm in some of the districts, the writer Karim Emile Bitar said that he would have read these articles, “which will be the subject of the first petitions here and there”.

“I am attaching to a parliament plus fragments of the opposition to explore and be a driving force of reform and reform,” said Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for strategic affairs.

Did Saad Hariri sera-t-elle gain from Hezbollah?

But more than the grand bouleverse of the 2022 scrutiny is without any of the absences of Saad Hariri: in January, the Prime Minister announced the announcement of a fragrant manner that neither he nor his party – the current one is presented -, ancillary elections.

The most observant observers are those who have reconsidered the plus of the influential leader of the Sunnah of the Lebanese political scene and this force in Arab Arabia: renforcée sur le Leban. Mais la position dure de Riyad à l’égard d’un pays qu’elle a si souvent soutenu, financièrement et politiquement, risque de profiter à son ennemi juré chiite, le Hezballah.

In addition to the return of Saad Hariri, the Lebanese sunnites have been given the right to take their rights and their participation. Before the 30% vote of the staff in 2018 in the Sunni areas of the bastions did not announce the participants of the inspection, before the speech of Kamal Fegali, and according to representatives of Reu.

The flambée of the carburetor price, which is made of luxury and luxury, is available for the Lebanese member of the water department. Selon un rapport publié en Avril par l’ONG Oxfam, accounts for 54% of the 4,670 respondents who voted.

Selon la Banque mondiale, le Leban connaît l’une des pires economisques au monde depuis le milieu du XIXis time. Under inflation, Lebanese money has lost about 90% of its value and over 80% of its population is covered by money.

An exodus of massive backpacks

This situation is at the expense of Lebanese countries to be paid. After the Observatory of the Crisis of the American University of Beirut, the current economic crisis has entered the department of 300,000 people in a single year, which is a troisie of a troisie.

Le pays compte déjà une des diasporas les plus significatives au monde. In the absence of official figures, the estimates estimated by the Lebanese are higher than the number of people living in the interior of the interior of the country. voisine.

Selon la plupart des experts, cet exode aurait éte plus prononcé encore si la pandemie de Covid-19 n’avait pas compliqué la recherche de travail à l’etranger. The gel of ordinary bankers’ accounts, destined to avoid a rue on the banks, a great way to send people who are not interested in anything other than money

Cette émigration massive, qui elle aussi alimente la défiance à l’égard des élites politiques libanaises, pourrait avoir des conséquences dans les urnes. “Those who parted on the impression of being fundamentally misunderstood the establishment of power, who did not have the opportunity to share in the raison d’être of the economic position of a corrupt body and the precedent.” It is the sentiment of a kleptocracy to power, “said Karim Emile Bitter, director of the Institute of Political Science at the University of Saint-Joseph de Beirut.

C’est sans doute une explication de la massive de ces Libanais de l’étranger, dimanche 8 mai à Paris, comme l’a constatée dans les bureaux de vote notre envoyée speciale Leela Jacinto. Applying to the provisional data, the Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs indicates that the participation rates of the Lebanese diaspora will be increased by 60%, with a maximum of 20

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