Nine months of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel have left a trail of destruction along their shared border. Satellite imagery and military records reveal extensive damage, with entire communities displaced, numerous buildings ruined, and vast areas of land affected. Despite ongoing hostilities, neither side has escalated to full-scale war, though frequent attacks have severely impacted both nations.
The current conflict began with Hezbollah’s rocket fire on Israeli positions, reportedly in support of Palestinians following the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war on October 7, 2023. Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (Acled) shows a staggering 7,491 cross-border attacks between October 8, 2023, and July 5, 2024, with Israel carrying out approximately five times as many attacks as Hezbollah.
The UN reports that over 90,000 people in Lebanon have been displaced, with around 100 civilians and 366 Hezbollah fighters killed in Israeli strikes. In Israel, 60,000 civilians have fled their homes, and 33 people, including 10 civilians, have died due to Hezbollah’s attacks.
Southern Lebanon’s Damage
In southern Lebanon, over 60% of border communities have experienced damage from Israeli air and artillery strikes, with more than 3,200 buildings affected as of July 10. Analysis by Corey Scher from City University of New York Graduate Center reveals significant destruction in towns like Aita el Shaab, Kfar Kila, and Blida.
Aita el Shaab has endured at least 299 attacks since October, leaving much of the town, including businesses and infrastructure, in ruins. The mayor described the damage as “earthquake-like,” with destroyed homes reduced to rubble and infrastructure severely impaired.
Impact in Northern Israel
Northern Israel has also suffered extensive damage from cross-border attacks. Over 1,000 buildings have been reported damaged, with significant land destruction due to wildfires ignited by the attacks. The BBC estimates that around 55 sq km of land in Israel and the Golan Heights has been affected, compared to 40 sq km in Lebanon. These fires have destroyed agricultural land and forests, reflecting Hezbollah’s strategy to create chaos and pressure the Israeli government.
Accusations and Responses
Lebanese Agriculture Minister Abbas Hajj Hassan has accused Israel of using white phosphorus, a controversial incendiary weapon, to cause widespread damage. Human Rights Watch has verified the use of white phosphorus in southern Lebanon, while the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) argue that its use is lawful and aimed at creating smoke screens rather than targeting civilians.
Escalation Concerns
The intensity of the conflict remains high, with concerns that further escalation could lead to an all-out war and potentially involve Iran. However, Dr. Burcu Ozcelik from Rusi suggests that both sides are currently taking measures to avoid a larger-scale confrontation, striving to manage the conflict without miscalculations or excessive escalation.