Jusqu’où grimpera-t-il? Lundi, the course of the blé a certificate of 438.25 euros per tonne on the clientele on the European market, a record. Reason: l’annonce samedi par l’Inde, deuxième mondial produkteur de cette céréale, d’un embargo sur ses exports.
The blé s’echangeait déjà à prix d’or sur le marché mondial, extrêmement tendu. “On the basis of three bad harvests in the Americas of the North or a year, some of the bad harvests in the principal countries are imported,” said Nathan Cordier, analyst at Agritel, a special advisory cabinet of the world’s leading farmers. -industrial. “The demand is still very elevated and superior to the offer, but the prices are high.”
A price increase of 40% after the war debut
The war in Ukraine is not arranged in this situation, the two belligérants are making a lot of more big exporters in the world.
L’Ukraine, which is on the verge of becoming the world’s third largest exporter, will be able to produce an amputation of good luck this year, as well as the plans of the American Minister of Agriculture (USDA). Now in 2022 10 million tons of exports to Kyiv, compared to 19 million tons in the plus.
Déjà à un univeu level, le prix du blé a sans Surprise increases by 40% depuis le debut du conflict.
15 million tons of production in India
At the end of the term, the second, world producer of blue, it is a solution as a solution for replacing the export losses in Ukraine. In computing the Australian and Canadian harvests, the Indian Indian market, in harvesting seasons, has an effect on some souls of markets such as tension, not only in the Moyen-Orient and in Asia, the tradition of clients.
Mais l’Inde n’est, structurellement, pas un pays exporteur de ble et l’immense majorité de sa production est consommée sur le marché local. “It simply came to our notice then. C’est-à-dire que si le prix est elevé et que la production le permet, ils exportent. Sinon, ils n’exportent pas pour ne pas risquer leur sécurité alimentaire », said Nathan Cordier.
This is exactly what happened. It is a pity that “the world is going down” to face war in Ukraine, the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi has announced an embargo on the face of a production and a good production, but I am well-informed in the reason for the extreme weight loss with paycheck:
Les Indiens s’attendaient à une trè bonne rekolte et, finalement, la fin decycle a été catastrophique à reason de la sécheresse et de la chaleur. Le pays a connu ses mois de mars et avril les plus chauds depuis au moins 120 ans, ce qui a litteralement fait brüler le blé. Donc au lieu d’avoir une production de 110 million tons, ils en ont récoltées 95 million. This is an export potential that can be found.
He said that the commanders who were in charge of the decree of embargo were honored, “he said that the exports were in arrears,” said Nathan Cordier. The agitation is an element of limiting inflation to the gallant inflation of food prices in this country of 1.4 million inhabitants.
Consequences for consumers?
The Indian interference on the blaze, which is based on the Indonesian forest on the palm tree in the name of the food industry, maintains the pressure of the press in the importing countries, like Morocco, dont produce cévar baisser plus 60%, in Iraq, because of the lack of water to reduce the power of cultivated surfaces.
In France, “la hausse est déjà considerarable” in order to accrue the prize of the producer of the most incapable of the blé, souligne Nathan Cordier. The price of the baguette of pain per day increased: from 3.61 euros per kilo in December 2021, it is past 3.68 euros in April, according to the data of the Insee. In one year, the pounds are quantitative to 15% and 10% increase.
Certes, la France produit elle aussi du blé – c’était même le 5e plus gros produkteur en 2019. the production of cereals », without the need to know the role of the production base that strikes the country. Christian Lambert, President of the FNSEA, takes a 20 to 30% return.
Without calculating that the blue is not the only mother of the first dont the price of a house. Business people like the specialists in the agro-food industry have an important face to increase the price of plastic and transport. An all that is considered in the bread of consumers.