© Reuters. Patients post articles at a store in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, November 22, 2022. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio

Par Ismail Shakil and Steve Scherer

OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Canadian economy advanced 0.1% in October and should develop at the same pace in November, according to data published on Friday, indicating that the full impact of seven consecutive interest rate hikes this year n’a pas encore eu lieu. .

October’s growth slowed compared to September’s gain of 0.2%, which was a revision to the increase compared to an increase of 0.1% previously reported, Statistics Canada said. The increase in October was in line with analysts’ forecasts.

“La révision à la hausse de septembre et la croissance modeste d’octobre font que le PIB du quatrième trimester prásté les prévisions de la Banque du Canada,” Andrew Grantham, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note.

Les derniers chiffres montren que la croissance “tient peut-être un peu mieux que prévue pour le quatrième trimestre,” Robert Kaucic, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.

“The real question will be to know how the chosen will evolve during the first semester of the next year, when the aggressive rate hikes of the Banque du Canada begin to fray a path more fully in the system,” said Kavcic.

The Banque du Canada raised its rates at a record pace of 400 basis points in nine months to 4.25% – a level seen last time in January 2008 – to fight inflation well above its target of 2% .

Canada’s annual inflation rate decreased to 6.8% in November, but was slightly higher than expected due to general price pressures, according to data from the beginning of the week, leaving the door open to a new hausse des taux en janvier.

The bank has declared that it will depend on the données pour fixer le taux directeur. Les marchés monétaires voient plus de 50% de chances d’une hausse de 25 points de base le 25 janvier.

In October, service providers gained 0.3%, driven by gains in the public sector, wholesale trade and industries in contact with clients, Statscan said.

The goods producing industries showed a decrease of 0.7% in October after four consecutive months of growth, mainly due to a decrease in mining, quarrying and oil extraction. de gas etc. d’un affaiblissement dans le Secteur de la manufacture.

The preliminary estimation of November showing a monthly increase of 0.1% of GDP was driven by gains in public services and wholesale trade, Statscan said.

“Bien que nos prévisions selon lesquences le PIB restera inchangé ce quarterest comportent des risques à la hausse, nous continuons de nous attendre à ce que le PIB se contracte au début de 2023,” said Stephen Brown, a Canadian economist at Capital Economics, dans une note .

Le canadien dollar s’échangeait presque inchangé à 1.3645 pour un billet vert, ou 73.29 US cents.