The Ukrainians are multiplied by the military successes of the last days in Russia. At this point, there are many more questions than one possible Ukrainian victory. But this object is the lord of the present.

D’un côté, il ya les troupes russes qui se sont retirées de la deuxième ville d’Ukraine, Kharkiv, dimanche 15 mai, et qui samblent incapables de franchir la rivière Donets pour s’enfoncer dans le Danbass. On the other hand, the Ukrainian forces do not profit from these reversals to advance to the Russian front.

Même la fin du siege d’Azovstal, the gigantic industrial complex of Marioupol, in the south of the country, can be considered as a victor for Kiev. Certes, la poche de resistance ukrainienne a fini par ceder, lundi 16 mai, mais «essentiellement parce que les soldats ukrainiens n’avaient plus de ammunition et non pas parce que les Russes ont réussi à prendre lespé site», réussi à prendre lespé site », Russian military questions and external consultant for the New Lines Institute, UN Center for American Geopolitical Research.

This battle took place, in all cases, a very large port in Moscow in the fields of imagery. “The official propaganda of the Kremlin in all its formations – in the wake of the war – suggests that Vladimir Poutine worked to restore the great Russian ruin of the Soviet era, but, in Marioupole, the sequel to the earliest large industrial site. the former Soviet Union, ”said Jeff Hawn.

Kharkiv on the Russian front

Tue 82is the day of conflict, the rapport de force a considerably evolué selon cet expert, qui juge qu ‘”on est passé d’une situation despérée pour l’Ukraine à une situations qui peut inspirer un optimisme mesuré à l’étainen-major”.

The inconvenience of the Russians to rapidly accelerate Kiev is marked by an important victory for Ukraine. More of the objects revolving in the “free” base of the Donbass semblaient plus facilities for attending Moscow.

Sauf que là encore, l’armée russe apparaît à la peine. “In addition to the great implementation of the Ukrainian lords of this second phase of the conflict, this is the answer to the Russians in Kharkiv and the Russian front,” says Hussein Aliyev, spec. the Ukrainian-Russian conflict of glass.

“A victorious person, more important than that, ‘he didn’t want to defend himself, as in Kiev, but to launch an offensive and repress the city,” said Jeff Hawn. Et dans la foulée de repousser une force numericament plus importante jusqu’à la frontière.

This is the decision of Ukrainians to install on the Russian front, which “is not important to a symbolic point of view”, says Sim Tack, military analyst for Force Analysis, a society for monitoring conflicts. Car côté russe, non loin de la frontière au nord de Kharkiv, se trouve la ville de Belgorod “qui sert de nœud logistique pour approvisner les troupes russes sur le front”, souligne cet expert. Desormais, l’Artillerie ukrainienne a donc une importante ligne de ravitaillement russe dans son viseur.

One of the most ruined children

Les Ukrainiens n’ont pas seulement repris du terrain aux Russes. They are also infinitely ill. “Russia is under the problem of two of the forces involved in Ukraine”, posted by Britannique de la Défense on Twitter on 15 May.

“This is a very accurate estimate with the information that we have on the glans of our country,” said Sim Tack. But for those who are more important, this is the number of blind or destitute vehicles abandoned or abandoned. “After the Oryx site data [qui fait un décompte des pertes de matériel russe, NDLR]la Russie a perdu entre un quart et un tiers de l’ensemble des chars de son armée, ce qui est tout simplement énorme ”, souligne ce specialiste.

At the moment, the dynamics of the game in favor of Ukraine. Alors que les Russes vont avoir de plus en plus de mal à renouveler le matériel détruit, “les esquipements envoyés à l’Ukraine par l’Occident – comme les obusiers americains ou les drones kamikazes américains li switchbladeàgne sur arrivals sur com”, Sim Tack summary.

An ensemble of elements that can be used by the British Minister of Defense to evoke the “possibility of a Russian government”. “This is a perspective that is currently being decided, but Ukraine is still able to promote what it wants to do,” said Hussein Aliyev.

D’abord, parce que “la Russie a continue à advancer dans la région du Danbass” pendent que les regards étaient rivés sur la bataille de Kharkiv, rappelle Sim Tack. The Russian forces occupy the quasi-totality of the administrative region of Louhansk and tend to be the only author of Donetsk.

“The Russians are at the top of the land at a very high price,” said Hussein Aliyev. These are the two regions (regional administrations) of Louhansk and Donetsk that are currently in the pipeline. The advent of Ukrainians is rising in a “defensive position very solid in the other side of the Donets River”, says Jeff Hawn. To win the prize of the grand villas of the region including the control of Ukraine – as Kramatorsk or Slaviansk – very difficult for the Russians.

A Ukrainian victor is possible, but what a victor?

Most potential victories of the Ukrainian forces depend on their capacity to represent the cities occupied by Russia. “It’s very complicated to fight for Kherson, for example, to be able to traverse many small rivers and the Russians not to be able to have the right to franchise these natural obstacles,” said Hussein Aliyev.

Sans compter que les munitions commencent aussi à manquer côté ukrainien, et «tout dépend de la capacité des pays occidentaux à continuer à envoyer du materiel à l’armée ukrainienne», poursuit cet expert de l’univers.

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Encore faut-il, aussi, s’entendre sur les conditions d’une victoire aux yeux de Уладзімір Зяленскі. The President of Ukraine will be asked to follow the question. Ainsi, debut mai, il a assuré vouloir be le presiden d’une Ukraine «dont fait partie la Crimée [annexée par la Russie en 2014]», Only the Wall Street Journal. Most of the days, moreover, he avoided a return “to the front of the beginning of the invasion”.

“Currently in Kiev, there is a clear vision of a maximalist and a minimalist vision of war objects,” said Hussein Aliyev. The problem of the return of the Crime in the Girona of Ukraine is not a military principle. “If Ukraine’s resuscitator fully complies with the Russian forces, it will be a great opportunity for us to have an advantage that can be considered in this case,” said Sim Tak.

More politically, this is a story of history. “On the way out of a defensive war, he will be able to support the two Russians as an invasion. Auckel cas il y aurait probablement une mobilizatsie bien plus forte pour defendre une région que la population russe smatère comme faisant legitimement partie de la Russie », rézumé Sim Tack.

If Ukraine is ready to take a decisive advantage, the leaders of the country will be able to envy an influential and very important camouflage politician in Vladimir Poutine. The fact that an animal is blessed to be born on the nuclear button is a must.

Another screenplay will be released that will end at a double victory. L’Ukraine pourrait alors affirmer qu’elle a repoussé l’envahisseur, mais pourrait – lors des négociations – laisser la porte ouverte à un statut particulier pour le Donbass afin que Moscou puisse population affirmer à e saject affirmer des à drifêsé is ready.

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